Export prices for Russian square billets have grown

In March 2025, square billet quotations from Russia’s Black Sea region increased by $14/mt, reaching $444/mt FOB. At the start of the month, the price growth for Russian square billets was supported by positive sentiment in global markets: Turkey saw rising scrap prices, while China experienced growth in finished product futures amid expectations of reduced steel production. However, in the second half of March, buyer demand weakened due to a lack of support from finished product markets. For instance, demand for rebar in MENA countries was low due to Ramadan, while in Turkey, political instability and volatility of the lira against the U.S. dollar negatively impacted consumption. In China, market sentiment also deteriorated due to tariff restrictions, domestic steel overproduction, and weak seasonal demand.

During the first ten days of March, square billet prices rose against the backdrop of a stronger ruble against the dollar and limited supply. For the Turkish market, small-tonnage lots from Russia were offered at $460/mt CFR, but demand remained weak, and no deals were concluded. Meanwhile, a large-tonnage batch of Russian square billets (100,000 mt) was sold to Taiwan, with shipments scheduled for May-June at $448-449/mt CFR.

In the second ten days of March, import quotations for square billets were supported by Turkey’s domestic market, where demand for finished products grew ahead of the construction season. Notably, a major producer from Kardemir raised square billet prices by $15/mt to $500-510/mt Ex-Works, while semi-finished product manufacturers in Izmir and Iskenderun increased their quotations by $10/mt to $530-535/mt Ex-Works. No deals for Russian products were reported.

By the end of the month, price increases among Russian exporters were primarily driven by the ruble’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar, despite weak demand. Exporters’ offers stood at $470/mt CFR or $450/mt FOB, but no transactions were recorded. In Turkey, domestic political tensions and high lira volatility against the dollar continued to weigh on the market.